Trump’s Approval Rating Hits New Low in Latest NBC News Poll
President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 39% among all U.S. adults, a second-term low in NBC News polling released on June 14 — his 80th birthday. The survey, conducted by Republican pollster Bill McInturff and Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt for the nonpartisan nonprofit More Perfect, found that 57% of Americans disapprove of his job performance. Among registered voters, approval stands at 42%, the lowest of his second term in NBC surveys.
The results come amid a deeply unpopular war in Iran and persistent economic strain from surging gas and grocery prices. The poll also shows that support among rural Americans — a key Trump constituency — has slipped to 50% in a separate Reuters/Ipsos survey, down from 60% in February 2025, driven by dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy and cost of living.
Democrats Hold 5-Point Lead on Generic Ballot
The NBC poll found that 49% of registered voters prefer Democrats to control Congress after the midterms, versus 44% who favor Republican control, with 7% unsure. Independents break toward Democrats by a 12-point margin (46% to 34%). Democrats need to net only three seats to retake the House, though the Senate path remains steeper — they must win four seats, several in states Trump carried by double digits in 2024.
“These are rocky numbers for Republicans, but they are not catastrophic,” said McInturff, noting Democrats held larger leads in previous “blue wave” years like 2018. Horwitt added that while the margin is narrower than in past cycles, Democrats “are still in a really good position, despite redistricting, to win seats.”
Why This Matters: Midterm Stakes and Economic Headwinds
The polling drop comes as Republicans hold razor-thin majorities in both chambers. Trump’s approval has declined from March, when 88% of Republicans approved; now 82% do, with 58% saying they “strongly” approve, down from 63% in March. This erosion, while modest, signals vulnerability in the GOP base as the party struggles to defend its congressional majority.
Economic discontent continues to weigh heavily on voters. The ongoing Iran war has exacerbated inflation, with gas and food prices remaining high. Trump announced on June 14 that a peace deal with Iran may be imminent, but the conflict has already taken a toll on his standing. The NBC poll was conducted from May 29 to June 7, capturing sentiment during escalating war costs and ahead of the nation’s 250th birthday celebrations in July.
A Divided Electorate, but Democrats Hold the Momentum
While Republicans retain advantages among men, white voters, and those without college degrees, Democrats lead among Black and Latino voters, voters under 50, and college graduates. The partisan loyalty gap is notable: 95% of 2024 Kamala Harris voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared to 90% of Trump voters preferring Republican control. That small but persistent difference could be decisive in tight races.
The NBC poll echoes findings from other surveys showing that Trump’s economic handling and the war in Iran are driving down his approval. The Midwest Tornado Outbreak: EF-3 Twisters, Power Outages, and World Cup Alert also added to the sense of crisis, though the White House has focused on foreign policy.
Broader Implications: Pessimism and the 250th Birthday
Beyond the immediate midterm calculus, the NBC poll reveals a deeply pessimistic national mood. A companion survey found that most Americans believe the country’s best days are behind it, and a record-low number say they are “extremely proud” to be Americans. Trust in institutions — including the federal government, media, and tech industry — has eroded. Even the military, traditionally the most trusted institution, saw a pronounced drop in confidence.
These findings help explain the populist upheavals of the past decade, from Trump and Vice President JD Vance on the right to Sen. Bernie Sanders and New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani on the left. Americans are split almost evenly on whether the Constitution has stood the test of time, and many see the sun setting on democratic institutions even as they express hope in engagement among citizens.
The timing is symbolic: Trump turned 80 on the same day the poll was released, and the No Kings Movement Shifts to Concert as Trump Turns 80 on June 14 highlighted ongoing protests against his presidency. Meanwhile, the White House faces internal challenges on fiscal policy, as covered in Trump and Hegseth's $1.5T Defense Budget Faces GOP Rebellion on Capitol Hill.
What This Changes
The poll shifts the political narrative ahead of November. While Republicans hoped to ride Trump’s base to victory, the data suggests that independents and even some rural supporters are drifting away. Democrats now have a clearer path to recapturing the House and a plausible, if difficult, route to the Senate majority.
But the margins are tight. McInturff’s warning — that these numbers are “rocky” but not catastrophic — underscores that the election is still five months away. The NBC poll serves as a flashing warning light for the GOP, but not a final verdict. If the economy improves or the Iran war ends, Trump’s numbers could rebound. For now, the president enters the summer at his weakest point since the COVID-19 era, and his party is feeling the weight of his declining popularity.
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