Trump’s Net Approval Rating Improves Modestly to -17, Yet Remains Stubbornly Negative
President Donald Trump’s net approval rating has ticked upward to -17, according to the latest data from pollster Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, released July 12, 2026. This marks the highest level since mid-April, representing a slight but notable reversion from the all-time low of -18.5 recorded in May. The improvement, while statistically modest, comes amid a flurry of new polling that shows the president’s approval hovering in the high 30s to low 40s, with disapproval consistently above 50 percent.
The Silver Bulletin average, which weights polls by reliability, sample size, and recency, shows Trump at roughly 39% approval and 56% disapproval. This is in line with other major trackers: The New York Times polling average places Trump at -19 (39% approve, 58% disapprove), while RealClearPolitics reports an average net approval of -15.9 based on polls from June 11 through July 7.
The Numbers Behind the Bump
According to the Silver Bulletin analysis, the uptick is partially driven by a handful of outlier polls showing much stronger results for Trump. A Daily Mail/JL Partners survey gave him a net -6, and a Talker Research/Scripps News poll taken just before the Fourth of July put him at net -1. Silver’s team acknowledged the latter is “a massive outlier,” but noted that many of the most influential polls in the average cluster around -17: Quinnipiac at -17, the Independent Center at -16, TIPP at -16, and Echelon Insights at -17.
Other recent surveys paint a similar picture. The I&I/TIPP poll from late June showed 38% approve and 54% disapprove (net -16). Big Data Poll recorded roughly 43% approve and 53% disapprove (net -10). HarrisX (2WAY) found 43% approve and 54% disapprove (net -11). Yet the Economist/YouGov poll was harsher, with only 35% approval and 61% disapproval (net -26). Focaldata reported a net negative of 23. Taken together, the consistency is striking: Trump’s approval remains stuck in the 35–43% range, and disapproval rarely dips below 53%.
Why It Matters: The Midterm Stakes and Policy Headwinds
Presidential approval ratings are a critical leading indicator for midterm elections, and with the 2026 congressional contests now just months away, every percentage point carries weight. Historically, presidents with approval ratings below 50% tend to see their party lose seats in the House and Senate. At roughly 39% approval, Trump is squarely in territory that typically spells trouble for the incumbent party.
Republicans on the ballot in November face a political environment shaped by Trump’s weak national numbers, even as his base remains loyal. A White House spokesman, Davis Ingle, told Newsweek that “no other president in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump,” citing job creation, inflation reduction, and housing affordability. Yet the polling data suggests the public is not yet convinced.
A Presidency Under Water: The Context
Trump’s net approval rating has been negative for virtually all of his second term, but the recent dip to -18.5 in May was the lowest of his presidency. That low came amid a volatile geopolitical landscape: the ongoing Iran conflict, with the US launching multiple rounds of strikes on Iranian targets, and tensions over the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices higher—contradicting Trump’s claims of falling fuel costs. On July 12, as fresh US strikes hit Iran, Brent crude spiked nearly 4% to over $78 a barrel, undermining the president’s Truth Social boast of a 59% approval rating and lower gas prices. In reality, independent sites put his approval near 37–40%, and his disapproval rating was close to 59%—the exact inverse of his claim.
This pattern of spin versus reality has become a hallmark of the Trump administration, but it carries real political consequences. Voters consistently rank the economy and inflation as top concerns, and rising energy costs—exacerbated by the Iran conflict—are a potent liability. The president’s refusal to sign a housing bill now awaiting automatic enactment adds another layer of uncertainty for homeowners and renters facing affordability crises.
The Bigger Picture: A Slight Reversion, but No Breakout
Analysts across major polling aggregators agree that while Trump’s numbers have improved marginally, the trend does not signal a breakthrough. The Silver Bulletin analysis puts it plainly: “Trump certainly still isn’t popular, but there does seem to have been a slight reversion from his all-time approval low in May.” That reversion may reflect a rally-around-the-flag effect amid the Iran crisis, or simply statistical noise from a handful of outlier polls.
The Iran Factor and the Oil Price Paradox
The Iran conflict is a double-edged sword for Trump. On one hand, military action can temporarily boost presidential approval through a rally effect. On the other, higher oil prices—which have risen since the war began in February—hurt consumers and undermine his economic messaging. Trump’s claim on Truth Social that he is responsible for lowering oil prices came on the same day that crude spiked due to fresh US strikes, a contradiction that independent fact-checkers were quick to note.
The broader geopolitical context is also straining key alliances. Netanyahu’s Ties to Trump Strain as Iran Conflict Escalates Before Israeli Vote, as the US and Israel navigate differing strategies toward Tehran. Meanwhile, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—declared by Iran and rejected by US Central Command—threatens global oil supply, with the strait carrying about 20% of the world’s crude. Any sustained disruption could push gas prices even higher, further eroding Trump’s approval.
What the Polls Tell Us About 2026
With the midterms approaching, the polling consensus offers a sobering picture for Republicans. Historically, a president with a net approval rating of -17 heading into the fall midterms is a drag on the party’s candidates. That said, Trump’s approval has shown resilience among his base, and the GOP’s turnout operation remains strong. The key swing voters—independents and suburban moderates—appear unimpressed. In the Focaldata poll, net approval among independents was deeply negative, a warning sign for Republican strategists.
The White House’s response has been to dismiss the polls as incomplete. “This is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect,” spokesman Ingle said. But with the Fourth of July holiday polls now in the rearview mirror, and more surveys due in the coming weeks, the trend line is clear: Trump remains underwater, and the slight uptick from the May nadir has not changed the fundamental dynamics.
The Silver Lining for Trump: Outlier Polls and Base Loyalty
Despite the grim averages, Trump can point to a handful of polls that show him faring better. The Daily Mail/JL Partners survey at net -6 and the Talker Research/Scripps News poll at net -1 are outliers, but they offer a narrative of potential upside—especially if the economy improves or if the Iran conflict resolves favorably. Trump’s base remains highly engaged, and his approval among Republicans has held steady in the low 80s, according to most polls.
Moreover, the Silver Bulletin average has ticked up from -18.5 to -17 over the past month, a small but positive move. If that trend continues, Trump could enter the fall campaign with a net approval in the mid-teens negative, which, while historically weak, would be an improvement from the worst moments of his term.
The Broader Implications for the GOP
The midterm elections are not solely a referendum on Trump; local candidates, economic conditions, and specific issues also matter. But the president’s approval rating is a powerful magnet, drawing attention to his record on inflation, foreign policy, and domestic priorities. The upcoming Trump Refuses to Sign Housing Bill as Law Awaits Automatic Enactment is another issue that could mobilize voters concerned about housing costs.
For now, the data suggests a divided electorate. Trump’s approval is stuck, but it is not collapsing. The slight reversion from May’s low is a reprieve, not a recovery. As the midterms loom, both parties will watch the next round of polls closely—especially those that measure voter enthusiasm, which often correlates with presidential job approval.
Conclusion: A Modest Bump, but No Turnaround
Donald Trump’s net approval rating has risen to -17, its highest point since mid-April, fueled by a handful of favorable polls and a slight reversion from the May trough. Yet the broader picture remains unchanged: approval in the high 30s to low 40s, disapproval solidly above 50%, and a political environment that is, at best, challenging for the White House. The Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and domestic unease over inflation and housing continue to weigh on his numbers.
The coming weeks will test whether this modest improvement is a signal of a genuine uptrend or merely a temporary pause in a longer decline. For now, the answer is uncertain—but the stakes, with the 2026 midterms approaching, could not be higher.
This article was updated on July 13, 2026 with the latest Silver Bulletin polling average and context on the Iran conflict.
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