Texas Senate Race Tightens: Paxton and Talarico in Dead Heat as Campaign Enters Final Four Months
A pair of new polls has sent shockwaves through the Texas political landscape, revealing that the race for the U.S. Senate between Republican incumbent Ken Paxton and Democratic challenger James Talarico is essentially tied. With just four months until Election Day, both campaigns have fresh reasons to be alarmed.
The latest Times/Siena Poll shows the candidates locked at 47 percent each, while the Texas Politics Project survey from the University of Texas gives Paxton a razor-thin 1-point edge. The numbers represent a dramatic shift in a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. For Paxton, the polling represents a dangerous erosion of Republican dominance, especially given that Donald Trump carried Texas by 14 points in 2024 and Paxton himself won his last attorney general race by 10 points.
“If the political truism that anyone trying to get elected to public office had best run scared — or run unopposed — still holds true, these polls suggest both candidates are entering the final four months with much trepidation,” noted Statesman columnist John C. Moritz.
Talarico Floods Airwaves While Paxton Replenishes War Chest
On the campaign trail, the contrast could not be starker. Talarico has been on an advertising blitz, spending more than $3 million on broadcast TV ads since the beginning of June. That is more than double what Democrat Colin Allred spent during a similar stretch in his 2024 Senate bid. Talarico’s ads have aired on local news programs, during high-ratings shows like Wheel of Fortune, and even during World Cup broadcasts in Houston at a cost of $50,000 per spot. One ad addressing rising costs for groceries, health care and housing has aired more than 1,700 times statewide.
“Of course Talarico is spending big, he had three extra months to raise money,” said Paxton campaign spokesperson Madison Cercy. “We’re out raising the resources we need to define him down the road.”
Paxton, who just emerged from an expensive GOP primary runoff against Senator John Cornyn, has spent only $29,000 on ads since June 1, according to AdImpact. The incumbent is relying heavily on less costly digital ads on social media, while his campaign focuses on replenishing its accounts. One of Paxton’s few TV spots aired in Corpus Christi during the Texas Democratic Convention, reminding viewers that Talarico voted against bills banning transgender athletes from competing in women’s sports.
The ad spending disparity could last most of the summer, as Senate Republicans who backed Cornyn in the primary have yet to throw their support behind Paxton. Senate Majority Leader John Thune suggested that since President Donald Trump helped Paxton win the primary, the president should pick up some of the financial weight.
“We will do what we need to do to make sure the state stays red,” Thune said. “But I’m certainly hopeful that the president, and the resources he can bring to bear, will be engaged.”
Why This Race Matters: Texas Turns Purple?
The stakes in this race extend far beyond a single Senate seat. Texas has been the crown jewel of Republican politics for a generation, providing a reliable base of electoral votes and a powerful platform for conservative policy. A Democratic victory would be seismic, potentially flipping control of the Senate and reshaping the national political map for years to come.
Trump’s Popularity Nosedives in Deep Red Texas
Perhaps the most startling data point comes from Trump’s approval rating. The same Texas Politics Project poll that shows a tight Senate race also shows Trump’s approval in Texas at just 43 percent, with 51 percent disapproving. That means the former president is now less popular in Texas than Kamala Harris was 18 months ago, when she lost the state by 14 points. Trump’s fading popularity could be the single greatest threat to Paxton’s campaign, as the two are closely allied. Trump announced plans to come to Dallas in September for an unusual midterm meeting of the Republican National Committee, a visit that could theoretically boost Paxton. But analysts warn that Trump’s appearance could just as easily energize Democratic voters in the state’s growing urban and suburban centers.
The Collin County Battleground
Talarico’s campaign is betting that he can make inroads in places like Collin County, a historically red suburban stronghold north of Dallas where Paxton launched his political career. At a rally in Plano last month, thousands of people filled the Plano Event Center, with attendees spilling into the aisles and sitting on the floor.
“I was expecting a big crowd,” Talarico told reporters. “I was not expecting 4,000 people to show up, and I think it proves that even in Ken Paxton’s own backyard, Texans across the political spectrum are hungry for change.”
The scene is remarkable for a Democratic candidate in Texas. Suburban bedroom communities once served as a bulwark of Republican strength, where yard signs for Democrats were virtually nonexistent. Now, those same suburbs are the main battleground in a race that could define the state’s political future.
“I’m basically gonna be living here in North Texas over the course of this campaign because we have to win here,” Talarico said after a recent visit to a Dallas food pantry and a coffee shop in Oak Lawn. “We have got to listen to the people of North Texas.”
Candidate Vulnerabilities: Trump’s Drag and the ‘D’ Word
Both candidates enter the final stretch with significant liabilities. For Paxton, the central problem is the erosion of the Republican base. The 14-point Trump margin in 2024 no longer exists, and Paxton cannot rely on a simple partisan tailwind. His own record as attorney general, marked by controversy and an impeachment trial, remains a live issue, though the polls suggest voters are focused more on national politics than local scandals.
For Talarico, the challenge is the capital “D” next to his name. The Times/Siena poll found that only 3 in 10 Texas voters identify as Democrats. The state’s Republican lean is deeply ingrained, and Talarico will need to win over a substantial number of independents and even some moderate Republicans to pull off an upset. The heavy baggage of being a Democrat in a state where Republicans have won every statewide election since 1998 cannot be overstated.
Paxton’s Financial Edge Fading?
One factor that could tip the scales is money. Talarico’s early ad blitz means he is defining himself to voters on his own terms, without Paxton’s counter-messaging. But Paxton’s campaign insists that they are raising the resources needed to respond later in the cycle. The question is whether the definition will stick. In a state as large and expensive as Texas, media buys are critical, and Talarico’s volunteer field operations in places like Collin County could give him an organizational edge that past Democratic campaigns lacked.
Broader Implications: A Test for the National Democratic Strategy
If Talarico wins, it will validate a growing theory among Democratic strategists: that the path to a national majority runs through the Sun Belt’s fast-growing, diverse suburbs. Texas’s population boom, driven by migration from other states and immigration, has made the electorate younger and more diverse, especially in the collar counties around Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio.
Lessons from Europe and America’s Political Realignment
The tightening race in Texas mirrors broader trends seen in other parts of the world, including the rise of populist movements and the erosion of traditional party loyalties. In France, the far-right faces a critical legal moment as a verdict looms that could decide Marine Le Pen’s presidential fate—a story covered in depth by our analysis of the Le Pen Verdict Looms: French Far Right at Crossroads as Court Decides Presidential Fate. In the United States, the struggle between establishment and insurgent forces continues to reshape both parties. The Texas Senate race is the latest battleground in this ongoing realignment.
What This Changes for November
If Paxton hangs on, it will confirm that Texas remains resistant to Democratic inroads at the top of the ticket, even as local races shift. But if Talarico wins, the implications are enormous. Control of the Senate could hang in the balance, and the Democratic Party would gain a powerful organizing foothold in the nation’s largest red state. The race also has implications for future presidential elections. A competitive Texas would force Republicans to spend tens of millions of dollars defending a state they have taken for granted for decades.
“A dead heat in Texas gives both Paxton and Talarico reason to sweat,” wrote Moritz. That sentiment captures the moment. With four months to go, neither candidate can afford to rest. The candidate who best navigates Trump’s declining popularity, the suburban revolt, and the money game will likely win a seat that could shape American politics for years.
As the campaign moves into the summer, all eyes will be on the airwaves, the polls, and the parking lots of Plano. The cage match for Texas’s Senate seat is just getting started.
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