California Governor Race Polls Show Tightening Field After Heated CNN Debate

CNN Debate Ignites a Tight Race for California Governor

Just days after the state began mailing primary ballots, seven leading candidates for California governor clashed in a high-stakes CNN debate at East Los Angeles College in Monterey Park on May 5, 2026. The two-hour event, broadcast nationally, offered voters a stark look at a race that polling now shows is too close to call. With the top contenders separated by mere percentage points, the debate served as a critical juncture for candidates seeking to break from the pack in what has become a volatile and unpredictable campaign.

The debate’s looser, more confrontational format—described by observers as more like a real debate than a panel discussion—allowed candidates to trade personal zingers and sharply differentiate themselves on issues ranging from housing and immigration to the legacy of Donald Trump. The event came as two new polls, released this week by SurveyUSA and the California Democratic Party (via Evitarus), painted a picture of an electorate beginning to solidify its choices, with undecided voters dropping to as low as 14% in some surveys.

Key poll numbers at a glance

• SurveyUSA poll: Republican Steve Hilton leads with 20%, followed by Democrat Tom Steyer at 18%, Republican Chad Bianco at 12%, and Democrat Xavier Becerra at 10%. Undecided: 17%.
• Evitarus poll (California Democratic Party): Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra are tied at 18% each. Undecided: 14%, down from a previous 24%.

These numbers reflect a dramatic shift from earlier this year, when former Representative Eric Swalwell was a frontrunner. Swalwell’s campaign imploded amid accusations of sexual harassment and assault, opening the door for Becerra—who was mired in low single digits—to surge into the upper tier. The latest party poll shows him tied with Hilton, a surprising development given California’s Democratic lean.

Why the Governor’s Race Matters Now

The California governor’s race is not just a statewide contest; it holds national implications. The winner will succeed Gavin Newsom, a term-limited Democrat who has been a frequent foil for Republicans and a prominent voice on national issues. The new governor will inherit a state grappling with a housing crisis, high gas prices, homelessness, and the ongoing fallout from immigration policy debates. With California’s economy ranking as the fifth largest in the world, the policies adopted in Sacramento under the next administration will reverberate far beyond state lines.

Primary ballots are already being returned, meaning the debate was one of the last major opportunities for candidates to sway voters before early voting accelerates. The timing could not be more critical for candidates like Villaraigosa, who stands at just 2% in the latest party poll, and for Steyer, who has poured millions into his campaign but now finds himself in a statistical tie with rivals.

The Becerra surge and backlash

Xavier Becerra, the former California attorney general and U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services under President Biden, has become the central figure of the race—and the primary target. His rise in the polls has triggered a wave of attack ads and news releases from the Steyer campaign, citing a scandal in which campaign aides were accused of diverting money from one of his accounts, as well as allegations that he lost track of millions of migrant children during his tenure at HHS.

During the debate, Becerra pushed back forcefully, calling himself a victim in the campaign fund case and insisting the “lost kids” critique was false. Known for a quiet demeanor, he displayed an animated side, noting that “everyone is evoking my name.” Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa leveled some of the sharpest criticisms, reflecting a long-standing rivalry dating back to their time in Los Angeles politics.

Despite the attacks, Becerra’s performance did not appear to be a game-changer, according to analysts. The debate covered living costs, gasoline prices, homelessness, and immigration, but no single moment seemed to dramatically alter the trajectory of the race. Still, the polling shift suggests that voters are beginning to settle on their preferred candidates as the June 2 primary approaches.

Broader Implications: What This Race Signals for California and the Nation

The tightening of the California governor race reflects a broader trend of increased volatility in high-profile state elections. The fact that a Republican—Steve Hilton—is leading in a major poll in deep-blue California underscores the fluidity of voter sentiment. Hilton, a former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron, has focused on economic issues and a message of “common sense reform,” which appears to be resonating with a significant slice of the electorate, even among some Democrats.

Meanwhile, the race for the Republican nomination is not without its own dynamics. Chad Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff known for his tough-on-crime stance, is polling at 12% in the SurveyUSA poll, making him a factor in the general election calculus. In California’s top-two primary system, it is possible that two Democrats or two Republicans could advance to the general election, depending on how votes break. The current fragmentation of the Democratic vote—with Steyer, Becerra, and others splitting the left—raises the possibility that a Republican could finish in the top two, a scenario that would galvanize national attention and spending.

Voter engagement and undecideds

One of the starkest findings in the recent polling is the sharp drop in undecided voters—from 24% in an earlier Evitarus poll to just 14% now. This suggests that the debate and the ongoing media barrage are helping voters make up their minds. However, the relatively low name recognition of some candidates, combined with the complexity of California’s ballot measures and local races, means many voters could still shift allegiances before June 2.

For context on how other state races are shaping up in this midterm cycle, see how Ohio Primary Tests Vivek Ramaswamy’s Bid for Governor Amid Religious Debate. Meanwhile, for those voting in today’s elections, it’s worth checking if you need identification: Polling Card Confusion: Do You Need ID to Vote in Today's Elections?.

National attention on California

The CNN debate amplified the national profile of the race. With the network hosting the event and providing wall-to-wall coverage, candidates were forced to address issues that resonate beyond California, including immigration enforcement, the role of the federal government in housing, and the future of Democratic leadership. Becerra, in particular, faced tough questions about his tenure in the Biden administration, which could have implications for national Democratic messaging as the party looks ahead to the 2028 presidential cycle.

What Comes Next: The Race to the Primary

With less than a month until the June 2 primary, the candidates are now entering the final sprint. Expect a surge in television ads, direct mail, and digital campaigning, particularly from well-funded candidates like Steyer, who has the resources to saturate the airwaves. The Steyer campaign has already begun airing anti-Becerra ads, and response ads from the Becerra camp are likely to follow.

Grassroots events and endorsements will also play a role. The California Democratic Party’s official endorsement remains a valuable asset, though the party has so far stayed neutral in the primary. Outside groups, including labor unions and environmental organizations, are expected to weigh in soon, potentially reshaping the race’s dynamics.

Key dates to watch

• May 21: CalMatters Ideas Festival in Sacramento, where candidates are scheduled to appear.
• June 2: California primary election day. Ballots must be postmarked by this date.
• November 3: General election, with the top two vote-getters from the primary advancing regardless of party.

Conclusion

The California governor’s race has evolved into one of the most compelling contests of the 2026 midterm cycle. The CNN debate and the latest polling data confirm that no candidate has a lock on the nomination. Xavier Becerra’s sudden rise, Steve Hilton’s surprising lead in one survey, and the persistence of undecided voters all point to a race that could go down to the wire. For now, all eyes are on the remaining weeks of campaigning, as candidates vie to define themselves before millions of ballots are cast.

As voters head to the polls, they will be deciding not just who governs California, but what direction the state—and by extension, the nation—will take on issues from housing to immigration to climate policy. The stakes have rarely been higher, and the race has rarely been tighter.