Early Returns Show Hilton and Becerra Neck-and-Neck in California Governor Primary
With roughly 37% of votes counted as of Tuesday night, Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra are essentially tied at about 26% support each in California’s top-two gubernatorial primary, according to early returns reported by CalMatters. The result defies pre-election polling that showed Becerra with a consistent lead and places the Trump-endorsed former Fox News host in a strong position to advance to the November general election.
Hilton’s surge follows a high-profile endorsement from President Donald Trump, who reinforced his backing in a social media post on Tuesday urging Californians to “vote today” for Hilton and pledging to work with the federal government to “make California great again.” The endorsement gave Hilton a critical boost in the final weeks of the campaign, consolidating conservative support and pushing him past Republican rival Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who had trailed in the polls before dropping out.
Billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer, who spent millions on a late advertising blitz, trailed in third place with less than 20% of the early vote. Democratic former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan conceded shortly after polls closed, narrowing the field to three main contenders.
The High Stakes of California’s Top-Two Primary
California’s unusual primary system allows the top two vote-getters to advance to the general election regardless of party, making every vote critical. For Republicans, Hilton represents their best chance to avoid being shut out of the November ballot—a scenario that would leave two Democrats competing for the state’s highest office. Hilton has warned conservative voters that supporting a rival Republican could splinter the vote and lock them out of the general election entirely.
For Democrats, the primary is equally consequential. The party is eager to retain control of the governorship in the nation’s most populous state, particularly as a bulwark against the Trump administration. Becerra, a former Biden cabinet secretary and California attorney general, has positioned himself as the establishment favorite, promising to fight the White House on issues from health care to immigration and to freeze insurance and utility rates.
Becerra’s campaign has emphasized his record of challenging Trump-era policies, while Steyer has tried to paint him as a corporate insider beholden to Big Oil and Big Tech. The progressive billionaire’s self-funded advertising blitz has dominated late-stage airwaves, but it has not yet translated into a top-two position in the early count.
The Role of Trump’s Endorsement in Shifting the Race
Hilton’s path to the top two was anything but certain just weeks ago. Before Trump’s endorsement in April, Hilton was locked in a tight battle with Bianco for the Republican vote. The endorsement instantly unified the GOP base behind Hilton, allowing him to pivot to a broader message targeting Democrats discontented with 16 years of one-party rule.
At a town hall in Santa Monica on Sunday, Hilton urged supporters to “fight like we are third” and warned against complacency. The former British political strategist has focused his campaign on cutting income taxes and slashing environmental regulations, resonating with voters frustrated by high housing costs, record gas prices, and insurance crisis driven by wildfire risks.
Prediction Markets and Polling Paint a Mixed Picture
Despite Hilton’s strong primary showing, prediction markets remain skeptical of his general election prospects. Polymarket’s “California governor election winner” market gives Hilton roughly 6% odds compared to Becerra’s 77%, reflecting the state’s deep Democratic lean. Steyer sits at around 15% in those same markets. However, Kalshi’s primary advancement market gave Hilton a 76% chance of reaching the general election, a figure that now appears more plausible given early returns.
Polling leading up to Election Day showed a tightly packed field where small shifts could determine who advances. The early returns confirm that volatility, with Hilton and Becerra essentially tied and Steyer struggling to break through despite his spending.
What This Means for California and the National Political Landscape
If Hilton secures a top-two finish, it would set up a general election matchup that tests the limits of Republican appeal in deep-blue California. Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly two to one in voter registration, making any GOP victory an uphill battle. However, Hilton’s campaign has tapped into widespread dissatisfaction with the state’s direction under Democratic leadership, particularly on economic issues.
The outcome of California’s governor race also carries national weight. A competitive general election would force Democrats to invest heavily in a state they typically take for granted, potentially diverting resources from battleground races elsewhere. For the Trump administration, a Hilton win would provide a major symbolic victory and a powerful platform in the most populous state.
Broader Trends: Iran, Immigration, and the Economy Shape Voters’ Choices
California’s election is unfolding against a backdrop of national and international crises. The ongoing war in Iran has spiked gas prices, hitting California drivers especially hard. Immigration enforcement under the Trump administration has created uncertainty in agricultural and tech sectors alike. And the state’s budget instability, exacerbated by calls for federal cuts to health programs, is a top concern for voters across party lines.
These factors have made the governor’s race more unpredictable than in recent cycles. While California’s Democratic lean remains a powerful force, Hilton’s early showing suggests that a segment of the electorate is open to a change in direction, especially if national conditions worsen.
Looking Ahead: What to Watch as Votes Are Counted
With tens of thousands of ballots still uncounted—including mail-in ballots that may trend Democratic—the final primary results could shift in the coming days or weeks. Becerra’s campaign expects late votes to narrow Hilton’s lead, while Hilton’s team is banking on strong turnout in conservative Central Valley and inland counties.
For now, the key story is that Hilton has defied expectations and positioned himself as a viable general election contender. Whether he can sustain that momentum against a well-funded Democratic opponent in November remains to be seen, but his early primary performance has already reshaped the race.
As California’s election system undergoes scrutiny—especially given the state’s role in the 2028 presidential primary calendar—the outcome of this governor’s race will be closely studied for clues about the evolving political dynamics in the nation’s most populous state.
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