Trump's Approval Rating Hits Record Low
President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen below 30 percent for the first time in his political career, according to a new American Research Group (ARG) poll released Monday. The survey, conducted September 16-20 among 1,100 American adults, shows just 29 percent of respondents approve of Trump's job performance, while 68 percent disapprove. The poll comes as the November 3 midterm elections approach, with Republicans defending narrow congressional majorities.
The ARG poll also reveals deep dissatisfaction with the president's handling of the economy. Only 26 percent of respondents approve of his economic management, and 71 percent disapprove. A striking 72 percent say the U.S. economy is getting worse, citing rising gas and grocery prices. Just 6 percent expect the economy to improve over the next year, while 70 percent predict it will worsen.
The results mark a significant decline from the start of Trump's second term. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted shortly after his January 2025 inauguration showed 47 percent approval. The new ARG figure is even lower than other recent polls, which generally place Trump in the mid-to-high 30s. The last president to see approval ratings in the 20s was George W. Bush at the end of 2008, according to Gallup.
Other Polls Confirm Downward Trend
The ARG survey is an outlier in its severity, but it aligns with a broader downward trend across multiple polling averages. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday, September 21, found Trump's approval at 32 percent—the lowest of his career in that tracker—down from 35 percent the previous week. The Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 1,277 U.S. adults and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points. RealClearPolling's average as of September 22 showed Trump at 40.1 percent approval and 58.5 percent disapproval.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll highlights eroding support among Republicans. Just 73 percent of Republicans approve of Trump's job performance, down from 82 percent a week earlier. For the first time, a majority of Republicans (51 percent) disapprove of his handling of the cost of living, while only 44 percent approve. Overall, just 17 percent of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the cost of living—the top issue for voters heading into the midterms.
The war with Iran, launched in February, has also taken a toll. Only 34 percent of respondents approve of Trump's handling of the conflict, which has driven up gasoline and diesel prices. In a Wednesday address, Trump said the U.S. is "hopefully toward the end" of the war, raising hopes for diplomacy, though Tehran has not confirmed direct negotiations.
Economic Discontent and Iran War Drive Decline
The sharp drop in Trump's approval ratings stems from widespread economic anxiety and frustration with the Iran war. Despite the administration's claims that economic pressures are inherited from the previous administration, 72 percent of Americans say the economy is worsening. Gas and grocery prices remain elevated, and personal finances are a growing concern.
The ARG survey shows that Trump's positive approval is now confined to just nine states: Wyoming, North Dakota, West Virginia, Arkansas, Alabama, Idaho, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Montana. A separate Newsweek analysis of Civiqs data found that Trump trails his disapproval rating in eight of nine states where prominent Republicans have recently distanced themselves from his policies. In Maine, Trump is 32 points underwater (31 percent approve, 63 percent disapprove). Nationally, Civiqs shows 35 percent approval and 59 percent disapproval, a net rating of -24 points.
Even among Republicans, dissatisfaction is mounting. The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that Republican disapproval of Trump's cost-of-living handling now outnumbers approval. This erosion of support in his own party could spell trouble for GOP candidates in competitive midterm races.
Midterm Implications and Broader Trends
With the midterm elections just weeks away, Trump's sagging approval ratings pose a significant challenge for Republicans. The president's numbers are worse than they were eight years ago, and the economy remains the top concern for voters. "Dissatisfaction with the economy/inflation is probably the biggest reason why," Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics told Newsweek.
The decline in Trump's approval is part of a broader trend of voter discontent. Other polling trackers also show Trump below 50 percent, though they vary. The contrast with the start of his term is stark: on January 20, 2025, he had positive net approval in 24 states; now, just 11 remain positive. As the Iran war continues and economic pressures persist, the president's ability to rally support for his party's candidates will be tested. With his approval at historic lows, the midterms could become a referendum on his leadership—and the results may reshape the political landscape.
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