Trump’s Approval Rating Falls Below 40% in Every State as Midterm Primaries Intensify
President Donald Trump’s approval rating has dropped below 40 percent in all 50 states for the first time since returning to office, according to rolling polling data from Civiqs released May 19, 2026. The survey of over 105,000 registered voters shows Trump underwater in every single state, including deep-red strongholds where his support had previously remained robust.
Nationally, Trump’s approval sits at 38 percent, compared with 58 percent disapproval, yielding a net approval rating of negative 20 points. The data, collected from January 2025 through May 19, 2026, reveals a stark geographic divide: while opposition is entrenched in blue states like Hawaii and Maryland, where disapproval tops 70 percent, even reliably Republican states show significant erosion. Wyoming, which long remained his strongest state, now records a net approval of just +24 percent—still high by current standards but a dramatic drop from earlier in his term.
The slipping approval numbers come as Trump continues to exert extraordinary control over the Republican Party, ousting incumbents who have crossed him. On May 19, Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie lost his primary to Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein in the most expensive House primary in history. In Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger—targeted by Trump for defending the 2020 election results—finished third in the Republican gubernatorial primary. And in Louisiana, two-term Senator Bill Cassidy failed to make the runoff after the president threw his weight behind Representative Julia Letlow.
Key Findings by State
According to the Civiqs data, Trump’s support varies widely but nowhere reaches majority approval. In West Virginia, his net approval stands at +18 percent, while in Idaho it is +16 percent. In swing states critical for midterm control, the margins are narrower. In Arizona, Trump’s net approval is -8 points; in Georgia, -11; in Pennsylvania, -14; and in Michigan, -17. None of the states commonly considered battlegrounds exceed 45 percent approval.
Deep-blue states show outright rejection. In Hawaii, only 24 percent approve, while 76 percent disapprove. Maryland records 25 percent approval against 72 percent disapproval. Vermont, Massachusetts, and California all show approval in the low 30s. The data underscores that Trump’s political troubles are not limited to coastal enclaves but extend into the heartland.
Why It Matters: Midterm Stakes and the GOP’s Electoral Dilemma
The president’s approval rating has long been the single most reliable predictor of how his party will fare in midterm elections. With Republicans holding slim majorities in both chambers of Congress, even modest losses could shift control to Democrats. Cook Political Report with Amy Walter flagged Trump’s aggregate approval dropping below 40 percent as a “red alert” for Republicans on the November ballot.
Yet the party’s primary season tells a different story. Trump’s endorsed candidates have consistently defeated incumbents who opposed him, demonstrating that his hold on the party’s activist base remains ironclad. The disconnect is stark: millions of voters who helped elect Trump in 2024 now disapprove of his performance, but those who remain loyal are intensely committed.
A New York Times/Siena Poll conducted May 11-15 found Trump’s approval at 37 percent—a second-term low—driven by widespread disapproval of his decision to go to war with Iran and deepening anxiety about the economy. Nearly two-thirds of voters said entering the Iran conflict was the wrong decision, and 64 percent disapproved of Trump’s handling of economic issues. The same poll showed that 69 percent of independents disapproved of Trump’s performance, up from 62 percent in January.
Economic Pessimism and the Iran Factor
The economy and foreign policy appear to be the primary drivers of Trump’s sinking numbers. According to the Times/Siena data, 44 percent of voters said Trump’s policies have hurt them personally, up from 41 percent last fall. Among independents, 47 percent said his policies have hurt them—a jump of six percentage points. These perceptions are hitting Trump where he previously enjoyed relative strength: economic stewardship.
The Iran conflict has also taken a toll. Trump’s decision to launch military action, which he later called off after Gulf states brokered a last-minute deal, has left voters divided and anxious. As reported in Trump Calls off Iran Attack, Says Gulf States Brokered Last-Minute Deal Push, the on-again, off-again nature of the conflict has damaged perceptions of presidential competence. Only 31 percent of voters approve of how Trump is managing the war.
Trump’s Base Shows Signs of Strain: White Non-College Voters Drift Away
Perhaps the most alarming trend for the White House is the erosion of support among white non-college-educated adults—the demographic backbone of Trump’s coalition. According to CBS News/YouGov polling, Trump’s net approval rating among this group plummeted from +36 points in February 2025 to −8 points in May 2026, a staggering decline of 44 percentage points.
The data shows a steady decline over the 16-month period. Trump’s honeymoon rating of +36 in February 2025 dropped to +14 by April 2025, as tariffs on trading partners took effect and the economy suffered. It recovered slightly to +16 in September, then fell to +6 in November during the government shutdown. A brief uptick to +10 in early 2026 gave way to a sharper decline this spring, with the rating turning negative for the first time.
This group proved critical to Trump’s 2024 victory, and any sustained decline could have outsized consequences in Rust Belt states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states are now showing net approval ratings for Trump in negative double digits.
Demographic Divides
The Civiqs data also reveals stark demographic splits. Trump maintains strong support among rural voters and those without college degrees, though the margin is shrinking. Among suburban voters—a key swing group—disapproval is consistently above 60 percent. Young voters under 30 disapprove at rates approaching 75 percent, while seniors are more evenly divided but still lean negative.
Women disapprove of Trump at higher rates than men, consistent with longstanding trends. The gender gap has widened slightly since 2024, with 63 percent of women disapproving compared to 53 percent of men.
Democratic Party Still Struggles Despite Trump’s Weakness
One of the more paradoxical findings in recent polling is that Democrats have not capitalized on Trump’s weakness. The Times/Siena poll found that only 26 percent of voters are satisfied with the Democratic Party—11 points lower than Trump’s approval rating. Forty-four percent of Democrats describe themselves as unsatisfied with their own party, compared to 23 percent of Republicans who feel the same about theirs.
Despite this satisfaction deficit, Democrats lead the generic 2026 midterm ballot by 50 percent to 39 percent nationally. Among independents, their advantage stretches to 18 points. Early indicators also suggest higher Democratic voter enthusiasm; Democrats are eight percentage points more likely than Republicans to say they will “almost certainly” vote in November.
This suggests the Democratic edge is driven more by anti-Trump sentiment than by enthusiasm for the party’s agenda. The disconnect could leave Democrats vulnerable if Trump’s numbers recover or if the party fails to articulate a compelling alternative.
The Primary Pipeline
While Trump’s approval numbers are bleak, his primary endorsement record remains pristine. In Indiana earlier this month, at least five of seven state senators who defied Trump’s demands to redraw congressional maps lost their nomination battles. The pattern is clear: crossing Trump is lethal for a Republican career, even as the president’s own standing declines.
This creates an unusual dynamic for the fall campaign. Candidates who have tied themselves closely to Trump must now defend his record in districts where his approval has sagged. In swing districts, that could prove fatal. In safe Republican seats, it may be less of a liability.
The Road to November: What State-Level Data Says About Control of Congress
With control of Congress hanging in the balance, state-level approval data provides a rough guide to the electoral map. The Civiqs numbers show Trump underwater in every state that hosted a competitive Senate race in 2024, including Montana, Ohio, and Nevada. In Montana, where Trump won by 16 points in 2024, his net approval is now -5. In Ohio, a state he carried by 11 points, his net approval is -9. In Nevada, which he lost narrowly, his net approval is -15.
These numbers suggest that even red-state Democratic incumbents may have a path to victory if they nationalize the race around Trump. Conversely, Republican candidates in blue states face an uphill climb. In Maine, where Senator Susan Collins is up for reelection, Trump’s approval stands at 36 percent against 61 percent disapproval—a toxic environment for any Republican.
The Swing State Squeeze
The most consequential battlegrounds are likely to be states where Trump’s approval is near his national average. In Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, his net approval ranges from -8 to -17 points. These are states with highly competitive House districts and potential Senate pickups. Democrats need to flip just a handful of seats to retake the House, and the Senate map favors them slightly.
Historical midterm trends also work against the president’s party. In 2018, during Trump’s first term, Republicans lost 40 House seats and the majority. In 2022, under President Biden, Democrats lost only a handful of seats—a historically good result for the incumbent party. The pattern suggests that even a modest approval rating deficit can translate into significant losses.
Broader Implications: The Stability of Trump’s Political Coalition
The divergence between Trump’s declining approval and his continued dominance of the GOP primary process raises fundamental questions about the stability of his coalition. One interpretation is that the party’s base is insulated from broader public opinion, creating a feedback loop in which primary victories obscure general election vulnerability.
Another view is that Trump’s support is hardening into a smaller but more committed core. The Civiqs data shows that approximately 35 to 40 percent of voters consistently approve of Trump, regardless of events. This group appears immune to bad news about the economy, foreign policy, or political scandals. It is a powerful base for a primary campaign but insufficient for a general election.
The wild card is whether independents and soft Republicans will return to Trump if economic conditions improve or if the Iran conflict is resolved. The Times/Siena poll showed that the economy is voters’ top concern, and Trump’s handling of it has eroded trust. However, the same poll found that 50 percent of voters still trust Trump more than Democrats on the economy—suggesting that his advantage on the issue, while diminished, is not gone.
A Divided Electorate, An Uncertain Fall
What is clear is that the electorate remains deeply polarized and volatile. Trump’s approval rating is stuck at levels that historically produce midterm losses, but the Democratic Party has yet to consolidate its advantage. The next six months will reveal whether the state-by-state erosion of Trump’s support translates into actual electoral defeat or whether the GOP’s structural advantages and Trump’s base mobilization can defy the polls.
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