Trump’s Approval Hits Second-Term Low as Majority Opposes Iran War
The latest New York Times/Siena College national poll of registered voters, released May 18, 2026, paints a grim picture for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party as the midterm election cycle heats up. According to the survey, conducted May 11-15, only 37% of registered voters approve of the president’s job performance — a second-term low in Times/Siena polling. A clear majority, 57%, say the country is headed in the wrong direction, while just 32% believe it is on the right track.
The poll also reveals deep dissatisfaction with the ongoing military conflict with Iran. Most voters now believe Trump made the wrong decision to go to war, and majorities say the war has not been worth the costs. Economic anxieties compound the political danger for the White House: 49% of voters rate economic conditions as “poor,” the highest share since the July 2022 survey, while only 22% rate the economy as “excellent” or “good.”
These headwinds appear to be reshaping the electoral landscape. On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 11 percentage points, 50% to 39%, among registered voters. That advantage is larger than the 5-point gap seen in the January 2026 Times/Siena poll (48% to 43%) and signals a potentially hostile environment for the GOP as they defend narrow majorities in the House and Senate.
Why the Poll Matters: Stakes for the Midterms and Beyond
A Foreboding Sign for Republicans
The Times/Siena survey is widely regarded as a bellwether of national political sentiment, and the current numbers suggest Republicans face an uphill battle in November. Historically, presidential approval is a strong predictor of how the president’s party will perform in midterm elections. With Trump underwater — 37% approve versus likely majority disapproval — the GOP must overcome both a polarized electorate and a wave of discontent over the Iran war.
The poll’s finding that 57% of voters believe the country is on the wrong track is nearly identical to the pessimism recorded in September 2025 (58%) and April 2025 (53%). That persistent negativity, coupled with a 49% “poor” rating for the economy, echoes patterns seen before the 2022 midterms, when Democrats defied historical trends but still lost the House. In July 2022, the wrong-track number hit 77% and the economy was rated poor by 58% of voters — a level of malaise that led to significant losses for the party in power.
Voter Enthusiasm and Turnout
The poll also measures voter enthusiasm ahead of the 2026 general election. Only 43% of registered voters say they are “almost certain” to vote, while 36% are “very likely” to vote. Combined, that 79% engagement level is relatively low for a midterm cycle, suggesting turnout could be uneven. Democrats will need to convert their polling advantage into actual votes, while Republicans must hope that disillusionment with the war and the economy does not depress their base.
The Iran War as a Defining Issue
The conflict with Iran appears to be a central driver of Trump’s declining approval. The poll indicates that most voters view the war as a mistake, a finding that could shape campaign messaging for both parties in the coming months. Democratic candidates are likely to hammer the issue, while Republicans may try to pivot to the economy or other domestic concerns. However, with economic sentiment already deeply negative, the party in power has limited room to maneuver.
Perspective: Broader Trends and What This Changes
A Shift in the Political Landscape
The Times/Siena data represents a meaningful shift from recent months. In January 2026, Trump’s approval stood at 37% as well — but the generic ballot was closer (48% Democratic to 43% Republican). The current 11-point Democratic lead suggests a growing appetite for change among voters, particularly independents and moderate Republicans who may be repelled by the war.
Moreover, the poll’s cross-tabs (available in the full toplines) likely reveal fractures within the GOP coalition. While the president retains strong support among his core base, the broader electorate — including suburban voters, women, and younger cohorts — appears to be drifting away. This pattern, if it holds, could portend a “blue wave” in November similar to the 2018 midterms, when Democrats won the House by a wide margin.
The 2028 Republican Primary: A Distant Echo
The poll’s findings also have implications for the future of the Republican Party. According to the Times/Siena 2028 Republican primary tracker, the early front-runners are all close allies of President Trump, with no major candidates seeking to distance themselves from the current administration. If Trump’s unpopularity persists, however, that dynamic could change. Potential contenders such as Vice President J.D. Vance, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, or others may calculate that a break from the Trump-era policies — especially on foreign intervention — is necessary to win in a general election.
Economic Pessimism: A Structural Challenge
The sustained poor ratings for the economy — 49% “poor” in May 2026, up from 38% in January 2026 — are particularly troubling for the White House. Even amid conflicts abroad, voters’ top concern remains their financial well-being. The poll shows that only 4% of voters rate economic conditions as “excellent,” and 18% as “good,” a combined 22% positive rating that is among the lowest since 2022. This suggests that any campaign messaging focused on “strength” or “leadership” will struggle to resonate if households feel squeezed by inflation, interest rates, or job insecurity.
What This Changes
The Times/Siena poll is a warning shot for the GOP as it prepares for the 2026 midterms. The combination of a deeply unpopular war, a stagnant economy, and declining presidential approval creates a toxic mix that historically leads to significant losses for the party in power. Democrats, emboldened by the 50% to 39% lead on the generic ballot, will likely increase their focus on the cost of the Iran conflict and the failure of Trump’s economic policies.
For voters, the data underscores a growing sense of unease. The 57% wrong-track number is nearly as high as the 61% recorded in October 2024, just before the last presidential election. If this sentiment persists through November, the 2026 midterms could reshape the balance of power in Washington — and set the stage for a contentious 2028 presidential race.
For context on how other current events are shaping public opinion, see our coverage of the DVSA Driving Test Rule Changes: Bots Banned as Waiting Times Hit 22 Weeks and the Kelsey Mitchell’s Historic Start for Fever Raises Injury Concerns After Overtime Loss.
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