SpaceX Shares Sink Below IPO Debut Price for First Time
SpaceX (SPCX) stock tumbled to an all-time low on Wednesday, July 9, 2026, dipping below its initial public offering price of $150 per share for the first time since the company's blockbuster June listing. Shares hit a low of $145.20 in midday trading before closing at $149.29, marking a 26% decline from the post-IPO high of $202 reached just three weeks ago.
The stock was up 1.4% in premarket trading on Thursday, potentially climbing back above the $150 threshold. However, the psychological breach of the IPO price has rattled investors who piled into what was the largest public debut in history — a $75 billion raise that valued SpaceX at $1.7 trillion on its first day.
Nasdaq-100 Inclusion Fails to Lift the Stock
The selloff continued despite SpaceX being added to the Nasdaq-100 Index this week — a milestone that typically triggers buying from exchange-traded funds and mutual funds that track the index. Market strategists suggested the inclusion was already priced into the stock, and broader weakness in the tech-heavy Nasdaq index compounded the downward pressure.
An onslaught of positive analyst coverage also failed to arrest the decline. Of the 17 underwriters for SpaceX's IPO, 12 issued new coverage, with all 12 giving a Buy or equivalent rating. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas set a $300 price target, arguing that SpaceX could transform energy into intelligence through data centers powered by solar energy, combining "near-monopoly launch economics, the world's largest LEO network, and a fast-scaling AI infrastructure business."
Yet, despite Wall Street price targets averaging above $200, the stock has struggled to regain that level since June 16.
Blue Origin Raises $10 Billion as Rivalry Heats Up
Adding to the competitive pressure on SpaceX, rival Blue Origin — the private rocket launch company backed by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos — is reportedly raising $10 billion at a $130 billion valuation, its first major public fundraise. According to the New York Times DealBook, the round includes $4 billion from Coatue Management, $4 billion from other large investors, and $2 billion from Bezos himself.
The fundraising is modest compared to the $85 billion raised by SpaceX to date, but it signals growing investor confidence in Blue Origin's prospects despite a significant rocket setback earlier this year. Bezos had previously funded the company entirely out of his own pocket for 25 years.
A Shifting Competitive Landscape
The timing of Blue Origin's capital injection is notable as SpaceX enters what analysts call its "post-honeymoon" phase with public markets. While SpaceX remains the dominant player in launch services and satellite internet via Starlink, its stock is now being judged alongside traditional earnings and valuation metrics — a new discipline for a company that has long operated in the private realm with little scrutiny.
Yahoo Finance's Julie Hyman noted that the stock's slide came despite the Nasdaq-100 inclusion, suggesting that the market is already looking past the IPO euphoria and focusing on fundamentals.
A History of Post-IPO Pain: What the Data Shows
According to a study by Jay Ritter, professor emeritus of finance at the University of Florida, the average IPO stock gains about 19% on the first trading day — a pattern SpaceX matched exactly when it closed at $161 on June 12. However, the historical record for large-cap IPOs is far less rosy over the following 12 months.
Among the 15 largest U.S. IPOs by market value at listing (excluding SpaceX), the average one-year return relative to the IPO price was -2%. More striking, the average maximum drawdown from the IPO price during the first year was -23%. If SpaceX follows that pattern, the stock could fall to approximately $104 per share at some point before June 2027.
Lockup Expiration Looms Large
A major overhang on SpaceX stock is the upcoming lockup expiration dates, which will allow early investors and employees to sell their shares for the first time. The Motley Fool report highlighted that anxiety about these lockup expirations and a recent bond offering have contributed to the selloff.
Elon Musk, SpaceX's CEO, has long emphasized that employee stock ownership was a core philosophy. In an interview with The Sean Hannity Show this week, Musk said: "I've always had the philosophy that everyone at the company should receive stock in the company, so that they can participate in the upside of the company." He added that thousands of employees are now millionaires on paper.
Ahead of the IPO, pre-IPO trading platform Hill Markets estimated the listing would create 4,400 new millionaires and over 400 centimillionaires. The coming lockup release could flood the market with supply, putting further pressure on the stock price.
The Permabear Warning: 'Craziest IPO in History'
Not everyone is bullish on SpaceX's long-term prospects. Veteran investor Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO and a self-proclaimed "permabear," called SpaceX the "craziest IPO in the history of man" during a podcast interview with Morningstar's The Long View.
"In 50 years, they'll be telling and writing stories about SpaceX, and they'll be quoting you paragraphs from the prospectus, and you will be laughing at it," Grantham warned. He argued that the company's valuation relies on transformative developments in artificial intelligence that may not materialize, making the stock a dangerous bet for Main Street investors who now hold it through index funds and retirement accounts.
SpaceX was fast-tracked into the Nasdaq-100, meaning its performance is directly tied to the portfolios of millions of everyday Americans — a point that gives Grantham pause.
"In the end, the reality will come out, and this will turn out to be, of course, one of the landmark historical events that I so value in history looking back," he said. "It will be amazing, by the way, if it doesn't collapse, because it will need such massive developments on AI that our entire lives are totally different."
What This Means for Investors
For investors holding SpaceX stock, the near-term outlook is uncertain. History suggests that even the most hyped IPOs often undergo a painful adjustment period in the first year. With lockup expirations ahead, a rival building its war chest, and the stock already trading below its IPO price, the path back to $200 — let alone analyst targets of $300 — is far from guaranteed.
A Tale of Two Space Economies
The diverging fortunes of SpaceX and Blue Origin highlight a broader shift in the space economy. SpaceX, with its massive market cap and public market pressures, must now satisfy quarterly earnings expectations while maintaining its technological edge. Blue Origin, still private and now flush with new capital, can take a longer view without the same scrutiny.
Moreover, the integration of AI and space infrastructure — a thesis that Morgan Stanley's Jonas champions — is still in its early stages. If the AI boom slows or regulatory hurdles emerge, SpaceX's valuation could face further headwinds.
The Wealth Effect on Employees
Despite the stock's recent slide, the IPO has already created substantial wealth for thousands of SpaceX employees. The company routinely awarded stock options upon hiring, at annual reviews, and during promotions, and held private liquidity events twice a year. CEO Gwynne Shotwell and her husband donated roughly $300 million worth of SpaceX stock to Trump Accounts — a government program that opens savings accounts for every American child born between 2025 and 2028.
For many workers, the paper wealth is life-changing — but if the stock continues to fall ahead of lockup expirations, the actual cash they can realize may be far less than the peak.
Broader Implications for the IPO Market
SpaceX's post-IPO struggles come at a time when the broader IPO market is showing signs of fatigue. Rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions with Iran, and a rotation out of high-growth tech stocks into value sectors have dampened investor appetite for new listings.
Recent weakness in the AI stock sector and uncertainty around chip sector earnings have added to the risk-off sentiment, making it harder for high-valuation stocks like SpaceX to sustain their premium.
If SpaceX — backed by the most successful private company in history, Elon Musk's visionary leadership, and a strong revenue base from Starlink and launch contracts — cannot hold its IPO price, what does that signal for the next generation of mega-IPOs? It could indicate that even the most hyped companies must eventually face the discipline of public market valuation.
For now, SpaceX remains a stock in transition. The question is whether it will stabilize and climb back toward analyst targets, or whether Grantham's prediction — that this will be remembered as the craziest IPO in history — proves prescient.
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