Two-Time 2026 Winner Chris Gotterup Draws Sleeper Buzz at PGA Championship
As the second round of the 2026 PGA Championship unfolds at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, one name keeps surfacing in betting circles and expert analysis: Chris Gotterup. Currently ranked 10th in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) but listed as the 32nd betting favorite at odds around +6000 to +6600, Gotterup is emerging as the week's most intriguing long-shot play.
Multiple sports analysts have flagged Gotterup as a strong value bet. Yahoo Sports' Esten McLaren highlighted Gotterup as a top long-shot pick, noting his two PGA Tour wins this season, elite driving distance, and a hot putter that has gained an average of 1.12 strokes per round in recent starts. The Athletic's Brody Miller also pointed to Gotterup as a sneaky mid-tier play, emphasizing that he is one of the longest players on tour and grew up just 90 miles from Aronimink.
Course Fit and Recent Form
Aronimink's setup appears tailor-made for Gotterup's game. Rory McIlroy described the course as a place where "strategy off the tee is pretty nonexistent" and players can simply "bash driver down there and then figure it out from there." The lack of severe trouble off the tee rewards long hitters, and Gotterup ranks among the longest on the PGA Tour. Additionally, Aronimink features multiple par threes over 215 yards and a mix of long approaches and short wedge shots, favoring a player who can bomb it and then rely on a sharp short game.
Gotterup enters the week on solid form. He finished tied for 24th in his Masters debut in April and has two victories in the 2026 season. His recent T24 at the Truist Championship included strong putting numbers, which have been a key part of his success.
Why the Odds Don't Match the Résumé
Despite his world ranking and recent wins, Gotterup's outright winner odds are surprisingly long. At BetMGM, he sits at +6000, while many bookmakers have him at 66-to-1 or longer. This discrepancy has caught the attention of betting analysts who see significant value.
"So you're telling me one of the longest players on tour, who's won twice on the PGA Tour in the last four months and grew up 90 miles away, has just the 22nd-best odds in the field? Explain that," wrote The Athletic's Brody Miller, summarizing the market inefficiency.
Part of the reason may be recent history. Since the PGA Championship moved to May in 2019, six of the last seven winners had odds of 35-to-1 or shorter, and four were 16-to-1 or shorter. The only exception was Phil Mickelson at 200-to-1, but he is a five-time major champion. This trend discourages bettors from taking chances on longer shots, even when the statistical profile suggests a player like Gotterup has a legitimate chance.
Key Stats Driving the Betting Value
- Driving distance: Among the top 10 in the field over the last 16 rounds.
- Par-4 scoring: Efficient on the most common hole type, which is critical at Aronimink.
- Recent putting: Averaging 1.12 strokes gained putting per round at the Truist Championship.
- Local ties: Grew up 90 miles from Aronimink, offering comfort and familiarity.
Experts also note that Aronimink is a new-look major venue, having hosted the PGA Championship only once before, in 1962. This levels the playing field, as no one has extensive course history, reducing the advantage typically held by the top-ranked players.
The Bigger Picture: Can a Long Shot Break the PGA Trend?
While Gotterup's statistical case is strong, bettors must weigh it against the broader trend of PGA Championship dominance by elite players. Scottie Scheffler, the defending champion and world No. 1, is the overwhelming favorite. Rory McIlroy, fresh off a Masters win, is close behind. Jon Rahm, the number two player per DataGolf, also looms as a serious threat.
However, the course at Aronimink may be the great equalizer. With its emphasis on length off the tee and ability to score on long par threes, the setup reduces the importance of precision iron play—one of Scheffler's and McIlroy's biggest strengths—and opens the door for bombers like Gotterup.
Expert Consensus
- Pamela Maldonado (ESPN): Gotterup not mentioned among top-tier favorites, but betting advice leans toward value plays.
- Esten McLaren (Yahoo Sports): Calls Gotterup the "best long-shot bet" with strong course fit.
- Brody Miller (The Athletic): Labels Gotterup a "sneaky mid-tier play" with elite length and local roots.
- Multiple ESPN analysts: Favor Scheffler, McIlroy, or Cameron Young, but acknowledge Gotterup's potential.
In an era where major winners almost always come from the top of the oddsboard, Gotterup represents a calculated risk backed by data. If he can maintain his driving accuracy and continue putting well, a storybook win at a course near his hometown is far from impossible.
For those watching the tournament unfold, Gotterup's performance in the second round will be critical. A strong round could see his odds shorten dramatically, while a poor showing would reinforce the narrative that long shots rarely win the PGA Championship. But in a year of surprises across sports—from Jamie Allen's emotional departure from Coventry City to white House marks Peace Officers Memorial Day with crime drop claims—golf fans may be ready for another underdog moment.
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