Joshua Báez's Historic Debut: 6 Homers in 17 Games, Closing in on Guerrero Jr.
A Start for the Ages
When the St. Louis Cardinals called up Joshua Báez on August 15, they knew they were getting a power hitter. But no one could have predicted the immediate impact. In his Major League debut against the Chicago Cubs, Báez crushed three home runs, becoming the first player in MLB history to homer three times in a debut. Since then, the 22-year-old outfielder has added three more long balls in just 17 games, giving him six homers in his first big-league stint.
His latest blast came in the seventh inning of the Cardinals' 8-6, 10-inning victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday, a game that was broadcast with a unique twist — teammate Michael McGreevy's parents provided color commentary. The video of the call, with his parents celebrating Báez's homer, went viral, amassing over 463,000 views on MLB's official X account.
Báez's power surge has been nothing short of remarkable. In just 17 games, he has hit one fewer home run than Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has played 124 games this season. Guerrero, a four-time All-Star who hit 48 homers in 2021 and averaged 31.8 per year from 2021-2025, has been inexplicably power-depleted in 2026, with only seven long balls. Báez, who spent most of the year in Triple-A where he hit 34 homers and drove in 90 runs in 103 games, has nearly matched that total in a fraction of the appearances.
A Realistic Look at the Numbers
While Báez's six homers in 17 games translate to a pace of 47 over 135 games — a mark that would lead the Cardinals — it's important to note the small sample size. His batting average sits at .175, and his on-base percentage is just .238. When he does make contact, the ball travels a long way, but he also strikes out frequently and has only four base hits that didn't leave the yard.
Still, the Cardinals have to be thrilled with the early returns. They're currently 70-70, sitting at .500 and fighting for a wild-card spot in the National League. Báez's emergence provides a spark in the middle of the order, alongside Jordan Walker, who leads the team with 28 homers. If Báez continues to produce, manager Oliver Marmol will have a difficult decision about his role in September and any potential postseason push.
In Tuesday's win, Báez showed more than just raw power when he led off the eighth inning with a double past third baseman Max Muncy, advanced on a ground ball, and scored on a sacrifice fly — a small-ball play that helped the Cardinals tie the game and force extras.
Beyond the Hype: What This Means
Báez's early success is a testament to the Cardinals' player development, but it also sparks a broader conversation about power in today's game. Guerrero Jr.'s sudden power outage has baffled analysts. The Blue Jays star hasn't hit a home run since August 20, and his slugging percentage is the lowest of his career. Some speculate that a wrist injury or adjustments in his swing are to blame, but Guerrero has downplayed any physical issue.
The contrast between Báez and Guerrero Jr. is a reminder that power can be unpredictable. Báez's strikeout rate (35% in the majors) suggests there will be ups and downs as pitchers adjust to him. Statcast data shows that his average exit velocity is elite, but his launch angle is steep, leading to either homers or pop-ups. He'll need to refine his approach to become a consistent hitter, not just a streaky slugger.
For the Cardinals, the long-term outlook is exciting. Báez is under club control for several years, and his power is the type of asset that can anchor the middle of a lineup. If he can improve his contact rate and plate discipline, he could become one of the league's top run producers. But even now, in the short term, his presence has injected energy into a team that desperately needed a jolt.
As the season winds down, all eyes will be on Báez to see if he can keep up his historic pace. For a Cardinals team that is exceeding expectations, he might be the X-factor that pushes them over the top.
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