Jared Jones' Shrinking Pitch Mix: A Growing Concern for the Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates entered the 2026 season with high hopes, buoyed by a rotation featuring young fireballers like Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. While Skenes has battled his own consistency issues, it's Jones who has become the focus of intense scrutiny over the past week. After a stellar July that had fans dreaming of a playoff push, Jones has hit a wall in August, surrendering a combined 11 earned runs in just seven innings across his last two starts. His ERA ballooned from a respectable 3.81 to 5.03 in the span of two outings, raising alarms about his approach, his pitch selection, and whether the Pirates' coaching staff is doing enough to adjust.
The most recent stumble came on August 9 at PNC Park, where the New York Mets shelled the right-hander for a career-worst eight runs over three innings. The 11-1 defeat was a low point in a season that had begun to trend upward. Just five days earlier, Jones had allowed three runs (two home runs) on eight hits over four innings in a loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. The pattern was clear: hitters were teeing off on him. In those two August starts, opponents posted a 50% hard-hit rate (14 hard hits on 28 batted ball events). Jones himself acknowledged his struggles, pointing to a lack of command and a noticeable dip in velocity—about a tick slower on both his four-seam fastball and slider.
The concern isn't just about results; it's about the process. Jones has undergone a significant shift in his pitch mix over his last six starts, a change that initially seemed brilliant but now looks like a double-edged sword. According to data from Sports Illustrated, Jones has abandoned his secondary pitches almost entirely, leaning on his four-seam fastball and slider at the expense of his changeup and curveball. Over his last six starts, he has thrown his fastball 53.1% of the time and his slider 39.5% of the time, combining for 92.6% of his total pitches. In stark contrast, during his first seven starts of the season, he used his fastball just 39% of the time, his slider 31.6%, his changeup 17.8%, and his curveball 11.6%.
For a stretch, the simplified approach worked wonders. Beginning with his perfect six innings against the Atlanta Braves on July 8, Jones posted a 1.96 ERA over a four-start span, allowing just five earned runs across 23 innings with 27 strikeouts and only four walks. In that Braves game, he threw 55 fastballs, 21 sliders, one changeup, and no curveballs across 77 pitches—a game plan that produced perfection. But hitters, as they often do, adjusted. The Brewers and Mets exposed the one-dimensional attack, sitting on the fastball and punishing the slider when it lacked its usual bite.
The Pirates' coaching staff, led by pitching coach Oscar Marin, faces a critical decision. Do they encourage Jones to reintroduce his changeup and curveball, even if it means a temporary adjustment period? Or do they trust the simplified approach, hoping that a return to mechanical consistency will restore his effectiveness? The answer could define not only Jones's season but also the Pirates' wild-card hopes.
The Pitfalls of a Two-Pitch Strategy in a Hitter-Friendly Era
Jones's situation is a microcosm of a broader trend in modern baseball, where young pitchers increasingly rely on overpowering stuff rather than a diverse arsenal. The fastball-slider combination has become the default for many top prospects, as teams emphasize velo and swing-and-miss over pitch sequencing. However, as Jones is discovering, this approach has a critical flaw: when hitters know what's coming, even the best stuff can be neutralized.
In his first six starts through the end of June, Jones posted a 5.76 ERA. The turning point came in July when he simplified his approach, and his numbers improved dramatically. But the question is whether that improvement was sustainable—or whether it merely masked a deeper issue. The data suggests that his success was built on a volatile foundation. By throwing fastballs and sliders nearly 93% of the time, Jones is essentially daring hitters to sit on one of two pitches. When his command is sharp, as it was in July, he can dominate. But when his mechanics falter, as they have in August, there is no safety net.
The loss of velocity is particularly alarming. Jones has averaged about a tick less on both his fastball and slider, according to his own postgame comments. A fastball that once sat at 98-99 mph is now sitting at 96-97, reducing its effectiveness. Similarly, his slider has lost some of its sharpness, making it easier for hitters to lay off or square up. This isn't just a mechanical issue; it could be a sign of fatigue or a ramp-up problem after an abbreviated spring training.
The Pirates have been cautious with their young arms, but Jones is already at 115 innings this season, a career-high. The team is in a delicate position: they want to compete for a playoff spot, but they also need to protect their long-term asset. The Philadelphia Phillies, for instance, have struggled with similar decisions regarding their young pitchers, often erring on the side of caution. The Pirates may need to consider a similar approach, perhaps skipping a start or moving to a six-man rotation to give Jones additional rest.
A Tale of Two Julys: From Perfect Game to Perfect Storm
Jones's July was nothing short of spectacular. On July 8, he flirted with a perfect game against the Braves, ultimately settling for six perfect innings before being lifted due to a pitch count. That game was a breakout performance that showcased his elite stuff and impeccable command. He struck out a season-high 12 batters, and his fastball-slider combo looked untouchable.
But in retrospect, that game may have been the beginning of the problem. Jones's reliance on just two pitches was so effective that night that the coaching staff saw no reason to change. The result was a gradual abandonment of his changeup and curveball, pitches that had generated swings and misses earlier in the season. His changeup, once a reliable weapon against left-handed hitters, has all but disappeared from his repertoire, dropping from 17.8% usage to just 5.4%. His curveball, similarly, has been nearly shelved, going from 11.6% to just 1.9%.
The numbers over his last six starts underscore the shift: 246 four-seam fastballs, 183 sliders, 25 changeups, and 9 curveballs out of 463 pitches. That's a drastic change from his first seven starts, where he threw 195 fastballs, 158 sliders, 89 changeups, and 58 curveballs out of 500 pitches. The increase in fastball and slider usage by 14.1% and 7.9%, respectively, came at the expense of his changeup (down 12.4%) and curveball (down 9.7%).
While this two-pitch approach has been effective for some pitchers—like the Yankees' Luis Gil, who has leaned heavily on his fastball and slider—it's a risky strategy for a pitcher like Jones, who has a more extensive arsenal. His changeup, in particular, has been a effective pitch when used, generating a 34% whiff rate earlier in the season. By abandoning it, Jones is effectively removing a weapon that could keep hitters off-balance.
The Pirates' analytics department has likely flagged this trend, but the coaching staff may be reluctant to tinker with what worked in July. However, the recent struggles suggest that a recalibration is necessary. Jones's pitch mix is not the only issue; his command has also been spotty, with an uncharacteristic number of deep counts and walks. In his last two starts, he has issued four walks and hit a batter, leading to elevated pitch counts and early exits.
The Bigger Picture: What This Means for the Pirates' Playoff Hopes
The Pirates entered August with a 58-54 record, sitting in the thick of the wild-card race. Their rotation, once a strength, has shown signs of fraying. Paul Skenes has seen his velocity dip to an all-time low, and Mitch Keller has been the subject of trade rumors. Jones's struggles add another layer of uncertainty to a team that can't afford many more hiccups.
The Pirates are scheduled to face the Miami Marlins on the road later this week, and Jones is expected to take the mound on August 16. His start against Sean Manaea and the Mets on August 9 was a disaster, but he gets a quick chance to bounce back. Miami's lineup, while not as potent as the Mets', still poses a threat, especially if Jones continues to rely on a predictable pitch sequence.
A successful outing against the Marlins could restore confidence and quiet the skeptics. A poor one could lead to a bullpen stint or even a trip to the injured list with a phantom issue. The Pirates have a history of being conservative with their young arms, and they may decide that a brief reset is necessary.
Beyond Jones, the team's broader pitching philosophy is under the microscope. General Manager Ben Cherington has built his reputation on developing high-upside arms, but the jury is still out on how well those arms are being managed. Skenes has struggled with arm fatigue, and now Jones is dealing with similar issues. The organization may need to revisit its workload management strategies to avoid burning out its most valuable assets.
The Road Ahead: Adjustments and Expectations
Jones's immediate future will be defined by his ability to adapt. The question of whether to reintroduce his changeup and curveball is not just about pitch selection; it's about trust. Jones has shown flashes of brilliance with all four pitches, and his success earlier in the season was built on that diversity. Returning to a four-pitch approach could help him regain his edge, but it will require time and patience.
The Pirates' hitting coach, Andy Haines, might also need to adjust the defensive alignment, as Jones's ground-ball rate has suffered with the two-pitch approach. When Jones was using his changeup and curveball, he induced more ground balls and weak contact. Now, he's become more fly-ball dependent, which, as the Brewers and Mets showed, can be disastrous in today's home run-happy environment.
For fans, the hope is that Jones can find a middle ground—keeping the fastball-slider attack while sprinkling in enough offspeed pitches to keep hitters guessing. The Pirates have a talented pitching staff, and the July version of Jones was good enough to make them a legitimate playoff contender. But the August version has exposed the fragility of that success.
As the season enters its final stretch, every start matters. The Pirates are in a tight race with teams like the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, and Arizona Diamondbacks for the final wild-card spot. Jones's next few starts could prove decisive. He has the talent to turn things around, but the pressure is mounting. The team cannot afford another blowup like the one against the Mets.
In the end, Jones's struggle is a reminder that success in Major League Baseball is often about adaptation. Pitchers who succeed are those who can adjust to hitters' adjustments. Jones's simplification of his pitch mix was a useful tool, but it's now a crutch. The next few weeks will reveal whether he can evolve or whether the Pirates' once-bright playoff hopes will fade along with his fastball velocity.
For more on how young arms are managed in high-stakes races, see our coverage of Jameis Winston Expands Media Empire With Two New Playmaker Shows—a different kind of adaptation—and Musiala Collapses in Bayern Friendly, Journalist Detained Over Transfer Claim for another glimpse of pressure in sports.
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